Obama is Serious About Expanding the Map

We usually don’t delve too deeply into discussions on this year’s presidential race, but Barack Obama is waging an extraordinary campaign that could have some serious downballot effects, and that’s definitely worth a look when we discuss House and Senate campaigns across the country.

Putting his money where his mouth is, Obama has launched a new 60 second biographical ad in 18 states, including a number of “non-traditional” battlegrounds that are already making the pundit class chatter:

Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Virginia.

This represents a serious commitment towards expanding the map. States like Alaska, Georgia, Indiana, Montana and North Dakota are supposed to be off-limits for any reasonable Democrat, but Obama — aided by an unprecedented fundraising advantage — is playing by a different set of rules. We could see a very different kind of “trickle-down effect” this fall.

Alaska, for instance, hasn’t been seriously contested since the 1960s, yet Democrats are contesting the state at every level this year with extremely strong candidates (Mark Begich and Ethan Berkowitz). A number of recent polls — public and private — are showing Obama barely behind McCain in the state. This will make the lives of Begich and Berkowitz easier, as they won’t have to convince as many voters to split their tickets — a challenge, as Cillizza notes, that was too great of a burden for Tony Knowles to overcome in his strong campaign against Sen. Lisa Murkowski in 2004.

In Georgia, few believe that GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss is in peril this year. However, we have seen indications that the Obama campaign plans to mount a massive registration drive to target 500,000 unregistered African-Americans in Georgia. If Democrats can field a strong nominee (say, Jim Martin?), could things get interesting here if Obama is not getting a John Kerry-like beating in the state?

There’s a lot to ponder here, but there’s a lot of potential for a rising Obama tide to lift many boats, especially with the great (but not surprising) news that Obama will not cede the GOP an inch by accepting public financing and abandoning his commanding financial edge. Unlike teasers like John Kerry’s brief ad campaigns in states like Louisiana and Virginia in 2004, Obama can afford to put his money where his mouth is — and that’s exciting.

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38 thoughts on “Obama is Serious About Expanding the Map”

  1. Even if Obama does not win Alaska, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, etc., his efforts and money in the states could have a profound impact for our House and Senate candidates.  

    Borrowing from the Cillizza’s quality post, while John Kerry got crushed in Alaska in 2004 — and probably spent not a single cent there — Tony Knowles only lost by three percent.  Had Kerry’s margin been just a little better, it could have put Knowles over the top.  This repeatedly happens to Dems in red states in presidential years.  Our presidential candidate — often by necessity — writes off a host of states.  As a result, the GOP nominee runs up enormous victories in the red states, making the missions of our nominees in those states even harder.  It is not tough to see that this point well applied in 2004 with South Dakota and Louisiana, where Kerry’s name and lack of efforts there could not have helped Tom Daschle and Chris John.  

    I think this point applies to dozens of races in these red states with candidates like Begich, Berkowitz, Titus, Hagan and others facing a harsh statewide dynamic.  If Obama goes down in say Alaska by five, I do not see how Stevens survives given the quality of Begich’s candidacy and Ted’s own problems.  

    Hopefully, before the race is over, Obama also spends some big time and energy even in places like Mississippi, for example, if for no other reason than to boast Ronnie Musgrove and Travis Childers.  That is why this year is so great: with Obama’s fundraising power and the wind at our backs, it makes perfect sense for him to contest traditional red states not just for his own campaign, but for our down-ticket candidates who he needs in Congress too.  

  2. In the last poll conducted in Georgia, well over 40% of voters are still undecided whether or not Chambliss deserve another term as Georgia senator. Against Jim Martin chambliss is only getting 51% of the vote & against Dale Cardwell, he is only getting 51% of the vote. Martin is getting 36% ( he got in the race late ) & cardwell is getting 38%. If Obama picks Sam Nunn or Jim Webb as his VP, he will be very competitive here in Georgia & might very well pull off a victory in Georgia.

  3. Because many of those states have important Senate and Governor contests.  Obama can help us in those races if he campaigns hard in those states.

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